NFL 2003 Forecasts - Futures and Week One Selections

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I will provide selections during the 2003 NFL season, beginning with futures selections...The plays will be weighted from one thru 10 units...The feeling here is that the line is at its most vulnerable on futures plays, and during the first four to five weeks of the regular season, when linemakers have limited current year data to utilize, and strong knowledge of players and organizations can really pay off...As a result, you will see much stronger unit size on the futures plays and during the opening weeks, in comparison to the later weeks...With the NY Jets vs Washington Redskins game kicking off the season tonight, we will begin with one futures play today, with no game selection on tonight's contest...We will follow with the remainder of the futures plays, along with the Week One selections, prior to the Sunday and Monday games...The futures numbers are based on a consensus of current prices.

NY Jets Under 8 - 105
9 Units

This was a clearcut under at 9 1/2 before the Chad Pennnington injury...The Jets lost real quality in offensive guard Randy Thomas, wide receiver Lavernues Coles, and kick returner Chad Morton, and general manager Terry Bradway's drafting hasn't produced either...The right side of their offensive line is shaky, their star running back Curtis Martin is 30 with 2,604 career carries, and there's no real speed at wide receiver...Their linebackers are past their prime and Vinny Testaverde is not a West Coast offense quarterback...He's proven that over the last couple of years.

[This message was edited by Forecast 28 on September 07, 2003 at 12:03 AM.]
 

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Here are the remainder of the futures selections:

New England Patriots Over 8.5 - 170
6 Units

Brilliantly coached team has made excellent off-season personnel decisions...Possibly the best defensive game plans in the league and now OLB Rosevelt Colvin gives them the speed to blitz better and mix up their fronts from 3-4 to 4-3...Team speed is better than last year, especially in the secondary.

Cleveland Browns Under 8.5 - 170
3 Units

They may be about to crash defensively...Their pass rush needs improvement to be ordinary, and their top four linebackers are rookie Chaun Thompson and three second-year players who have never started...Butch Davis is emphasizing young legs and speed, hoping he and defensive coordinator Dave Campo can coach them up...They eventually should, but can all four deliver this season?...Highly unlikely...Kelly Holcomb was the obvious choice at quarterback...He's smart, instinctive, and the coaches and players trust him...But they'll give up alot of points.

Baltimore Ravens Over 7.5 - 150
3 Units

They could actually win the AFC North with what should be one of the league's top defenses...Their secondar will make plays, their LB's are superb, and their pass rush will set them all up...Their defensive is faster than in their Super Bowl winning year, and with Jamal Lewis pounding it, they'll control the clock.

Indianapolis Colts Over 8.5 - 130
6 Units

Edgerrin James is healthy...The defensive made a huge improvement in the second half of the season...They need to improve alot more to be an elite team, but they made the playoffs last year, and we're not asking them to do something they haven't already done.

Jacksonville Jaguars Under 7 - 135
6 Units

The offensive line has major problems, which explains why Mark Brunell has been pounded into virtual submission...The WR's are weak...And the rookie quarterback Byron Leftwich comes off a serious leg injury and is not considered highly mobile...Hugh Douglas is 32, and how many speed rushers still have it at his age?...
The defense will be faster, but new coach Jack Del Rio might prefer to teach the youth his own way instead of playing veterans, which could mean a lot of losing in a teaching year.

Denver Broncos Over 9.5 - 115
3 Units

Mike Shanahan may be exactly what new quarterback Jake Plummer needs...His mobility is well suited for their version of the West Coast offense...Shanahan has done this before, in taking a mobile QB from a bad team and polishing him into a success, when he tutored Steve Young in San Francisco...Clinton Portis' running skills will help Plummer relax and not feel the weight of the game on his back...And they can't be hit with the number of injuries they've had over the past couple of years.

Kansas City Chiefs Under 9 + 105
3 Units

They can score all the points they want, but defense wins games and they probably haven't improved enough...They led the league in scoring last year and still finished only 8-8...They got faster defensively, but they didn't get much beaatter. The best of the imports, DE Vonnie Holliday and MLB Shawn Barber, have been no more than a cut above average...They have great athletes in the secondary, but they haven't played well...And defensive coordinator Greg Robinson failed in Denver, but unlike Mike Shanahan, Dick Vermeil is loyal to a fault and keeps him around.

Philadelphia Eagles Over 10 - 130
3 Units

The coaching is solid, as is the talent...They can withstand injuries because they have depth...They were the number one playoff seed last season, and their only significant loss is punter Sean Landeta, because kick returner Brian Mitchell should be effectively replaced by Brian Westbrook...Again, we are not asking them to do anything they haven't already done.

Dallas Cowboys Under 7 - 110
9 Units

A weak offensive line should keep this team from reaching the above number...They also have to play Quincy Carter at QB, and they are not convinced he is the future...Defensively, they might be able to compete most weeks, but this offense will not score...And despite Bill Parcells' well earned reputation for motivating players beyond their talent, he's got to coach new players and new coaches...Only one assistant has ever been with him before, and this looks like a teach the fundamentals of our approach year.

Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 - 125
3 Units

Bret Favre is still at the top of his game...They knew when to get rid of WR's Antonio Freeman and Bill Schroeder, and their replacements were better, as Donald Driver made the Pro Bowl...They did a good job of patching their offensive line after injuries to tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher...Defensively, the need to patch some more, but they can...The
division isn't highly competitive, and 10-6 should be reached if Favre stays healthy.

Chicago Bears Under 7 + 105
9 Units

Their 13-3 record in 2001 was a mirage...the 4-12 in 2002 wasn't...Except for excellent center Olin Kreutz, their offensive line is weak, and that crippled the running game last season...Their speed receivers are unpolished, their polished guys are slow, and they lost a stud in OLB Rosevelt Colvin...Brian Urlacher can't do it alone..Dick Butkus couldn't either...Dick Jauron is a player's coach who understands what players endure, but there's no fear of failure in that locker room.

Tampa Bay Bucs Over 10.5 - 125
6 Units

Let's see...The offense struggled through October...Then Brad Johnson proved to Jon Gruden how good he is...He's intelligent, a good decision maker, and tough as nails...Now, in Gruden's second year, his offense has been learned, so it should be better..The offensive line is just ordinary in ability, but makes the right adjustments on the fly...There's no dropoff defensively.

New Orleans Saints Under 8 - 110
3 Units

The good news is that Aaron Brooks is apparently healed from his shoulder injury...Deuce McAllister is a stud, and WR's Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth are dangerous...The bad news is they lost composure in the secondary with Sammy Knight gone..Most teams reflect reflect their hed coach's demeanor, and that may not be a good thing...They play undisciplined football, with bad penalties on late hits and all kinds of personal fouls.

Carolina Panthers Under 7.5 - 105
6 Units

They may have the best front four in the NFC...MLB Dan Morgan and safety Deon Grant appear headed for big things...John Fox is an outstanding defensive coach and leader who had not trouble getting this team to buy in and play hard...Stephen Davis gives them the power running, clock eating, chain moving back they need to keep the game out of the QB's hands...They play smarter than their experience would indicate and could be a playoff team.

San Francisco 49ers Under 9 + 105
3 Units

How can you count on QB Jeff Garcia to be available each week with a bad back...And their backups aren't ready...The defense is healthy, so it gets better, but Seattle got better with Dennis Erickson and he still lost the locker room...He's clearly Bill Walsh and Terry Donahue's guy but will the players respect him?

Seattle Seahawks Over 7.5 - 180
6 Units

They went 8-8 last year with a lousy defense...DT Chad Eaton is down for the count, but MLB Anthony Simmons returns after missing almost the entire season...He's a big-time impact player...Rookie CB Marcus Trufant gives them good corner play...And Matt Hasselback matured in the second half of last season...This is a dangerous offensive team, which has a good chance to make the playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals Under 5 - 120
3 Units

They have already lost two of their best defensive players in Kyle Vanden Bosch and Duane Starks for the entire season...As a result, the league's worst pass rush gets even worse...Emmett Smith is nothing more than a decent grinder right now, and he will likely do more for this team's notoriety than its winning record.

Divisional Championship Plays

New England AFC East + 300 2 Units
Baltimore AFC North + 350 2 Units
Denver AFC West + 200 1 Unit
Philadelphia NFC East - 150 1 Unit
Green Bay NFC North - 180 1 Unit
Tampa Bay NFL South - 220 2 Units
St Louis NFC West + 120 1 Unit
Seattle NFC West + 600 1 Unit
 

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Rather than start with game selections in Week One, I will let the dust settle, see how the futures go, and likely post individual games next week.
 

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